So, Here's What I'm Thinking...
Yesterday, I took a close look at the numbers RQ has for the months of September 2005 through June 2006. These are numbers that reflect a sampling of how many families have LIDs during each of these months.
- September 2005 - 378 (possibly referred January 2007)
- October 2005 - 464 (possibly referred February & March 2007)
- November 2005 - 519 (possibly referred April & May 2007)
- December 2005 - 281 (possibly referred June 2007)
- January 2006 - 259 (possibly referred July 2007)
- February 2006 - 226 (possibly referred August 2007)
- March 2006 - 365 (possibly referred September 2007)
- April 2006 - 227 (possibly referred October 2007)
- May 2006 - 211 (possibly referred November 2007)
- June 2006 - 184 (possibly referred December 2007)
- July 2006 - 122 (possibly referred January 2008)
I'm thinking that this week's batch of referrals is going to come pretty close to referring all of September 2005, give or take a day or two. Then, I think it will take two months each to refer October and November 2005. After that, if these polls are an accurate sampling, I then think it's possible that they will be able to begin referring whole months, and maybe even more than whole months, once again because there are much fewer LIDs from that point on.
So, working with that theory, I think I'm about twelve months away from a referral. I think it's possible that I will receive my referral this December or next January. Of course, anything could happen, but this seems realistic to me right now.
If I'm right, I feel like I can totally handle that much more of a wait.
Okay, what do you think?
Does my theory make sense?
Or am I way off base?
posted by Joannah @ 9:52 AM
27 Comments:
At 10:31 AM,
kitchu said…
I don't know what makes sense anymore, but I LIKE your theory! Of course, I'm going to be LID probably late March or early April, and those months will be PACKED full with these new restrictions, so I think my wait might be around 24 months if not longer. I can handle it, as long as I have a heads up!
Here's to hoping you get your referral THIS year!
Kris
At 10:36 AM,
Beckyb said…
I am hoping you are right - our paperwork was DTC in Dec. so hoping for a Jan. LID - and I just keep praying that everything speeds up over there - I keep telling God that He is Bigger than China and I know He can make that happen!! Hate to wish my year away, but I'm with you- hoping for late this year or early next!!!
At 11:13 AM,
Stephe said…
I pretty much agree with your theory. I'm LID 2/06 and thinking/hoping that I might get a referral in October 07. Not to far off from yours. I can deal with it! I just hoping they honor us that are LID before 5/1/07 from the new rules!!!
At 11:33 AM,
4D said…
We have in our minds a September/October referral. Do not know what will happen if that does not occur. I hope and pray that these calculations are true or even sooner.
Keep smilin!
At 11:41 AM,
Sugar Cookies And Hope said…
Who knows? I have an August 2006 LID and I'm banking on a referral in February 2008 with travel in April. I'm not sure if I will be able to deal with anything other than that.
I guess I'll have to if it really does come down to further wait times.
At 11:50 AM,
Anonymous said…
Man, with my May 2006 LID I was still hoping to have a referral some time in August! :(
- Stephanie
www.mesocrafty.wordpress.com
At 12:03 PM,
Calico Sky said…
I like the sound of your theory, the sooner jillian is home the better. Let's home by at least next new year you are only weeks (or even a few sleeps) away!!
At 12:36 PM,
wzgirl said…
I'll have to keep checking back to see what others think, but I do appreciate your optimism, Joannah! Don't forget about the mammoth month of October - who knows how long it will take to get through that one??
At 12:49 PM,
Glinda said…
I'll go along with that Joannah, but I will add that I do not understand why we cannot go somewhere to get a more comprehensive outlook instead of having to put ourselves through this every month. In addition, my agency e-mailed me and said the wait is now at 16-17 months according to their crystal ball. Every time I get an e-mail it increases by one month, i.e., last month 15-16, etc. So I would prefer that they just not e-mail as I must pull my head out of the sand each time so they can slap me with the reality.
P.S. I do (hope) believe that 18 mos. is the tops.
At 1:25 PM,
Donna said…
Gosh, I hope you're right...that would be fantastic news for a lot of people!
At 1:50 PM,
Abby's Mom said…
I hope your right! Only time will tell....
At 1:59 PM,
Special K said…
I agree and really hope you're right. I've been praying hard, wishing on stars and eyelashes and birthday cake candles and anything else that might bring me luck to just have Mia home BEFORE next Christmas. Even if I land in Ohio with her on Dec 24th I'll be ecstatic. And with my June LID .. it's still possible. Here's to hoping!
At 3:11 PM,
~Kristen said…
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
At 3:16 PM,
~Kristen said…
Sorry about the deleted one... oopps
Wow Joannah...
I like this theory very much!!! Much nicer outlook than RQ has had recently.
I've decided that you should be the new rumor queen.... although you'll need a new name, something along the lines of Prediction Princess??? LOL just a thought!
Definitely like this scenerio though!!!
At 3:30 PM,
Mariah said…
I hope you are right!! I listened to the radio show you posted. They seemed to think referrals would speed up after these restrictions were announced!! I hope so!
At 4:36 PM,
C's Mom said…
A girl can dream....
Your timefrane sounds realistic but anything is possible. I'm just going to continue to swing in the breeze and hopefully be able to smile while doing so.
At 4:51 PM,
dawn said…
Thank you so muc for posting this. I was wondering how I was going to last without my groups and the RQ but thankfully you are here and gave me a fix.
Right or wrong I am happy with your theory compared to many others. I would be happy with an August referral.
Thanks for that update. ;)
At 5:16 PM,
Anonymous said…
It is hard to imagine what people like yourself are going through not knowing how many days/weeks of referrals will come next. At least when we were waiting, you knew that it was one whole month at a time and you could calculate accordingly. I hope your theory is correct!!!
At 6:48 PM,
Kim :) said…
I totally agree with your theory... and I am praying that China surprises us and refers quicker than your theory! :)
At 9:15 PM,
M3 said…
That theory sounds reasonable to me!
At 7:48 AM,
Stephanie said…
It looks pretty accurate to me... those are the same figures we came up with. We are crossing our fingers for Septmember/October referral.... :-)
At 12:34 PM,
Terri | Sugar Free Glow said…
I really think it will pick up after October and November referrals go out so I agree with your theory.
Then again, who knows. It's such a leap of faith, isn't it?
At 5:06 PM,
Anne Marie said…
Fingers crossed for you!!!!!
At 7:13 PM,
Shandra said…
Theory sounds great to me. I just have one question where do you get the numbers from? Our agency saw record DTC in May 2006. I am not sure if that is true for all. Things have slowed down since then though.
At 7:16 PM,
Joannah said…
Shandra,
All numbers are from http://www.ChinaAdoptTalk.com (aka The Rumor Queen). I simply used her poll results to draw my conclusions. She estimates her poll results are probably about 25% of actual LIDs.
At 2:40 PM,
Polar Bear said…
Wow! Instant tears! You have just given me some hope. I really like your theory. I was starting to think we would be childless yet again next Christmas.
Thank you for the glimer of hope!!!!
At 7:19 PM,
Donna said…
I like your theory and it puts me at an August referral. I've been hoping for a late summer referral with travel in the fall. From your lips to God's ears!
By the way, I have the China wall calendar you picture here on my craft room wall. Great photos!
Donna :)
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